The concept of the long run

“In the long run, we are all dead.” — J. M. Keynes

Everyone who stud­ies eco­nom­ics more or less seri­ously comes up against the need to under­stand the dif­fer­ence between the long run and the short run.

The sim­plest exam­ple: pro­duc­ers’ abil­ity to change the quan­tity they supply is neg­li­gi­ble in the short run and more real­is­tic over the “long haul” :).

In prac­tice, unfor­tu­nately, most people con­sider only the short run, and because of that they often make the wrong decisions.

For exam­ple, some busi­ness owners, ana­lyz­ing their sales and fore­see­ing a loss on the cur­rent deal because the buyer wants to return the goods, refuse him. Yes, they save a few dol­lars, since they don’t have to return the goods to the whole­saler and they don’t pay for ship­ping; that’s the short run. But if we look at the sit­u­a­tion from, fig­u­ra­tively speak­ing, ten steps back, we see that by fear­ing a loss now, we have prob­a­bly lost a cus­tomer, which in the long run means lost income for us. And if we also drag in the cal­cu­la­tion of a cus­tomer’s “life­time value”, that is, the amount the aver­age member of your target audi­ence spends on your goods, or goods like them, over a whole life­time, we see how utterly irra­tional this behav­ior is.

Beyond cus­tomer rela­tions, the con­cept of the long run is useful to apply in many other areas, and I think it would make our lives a little better. After all, when you look at any rela­tion­ship in terms of the long run, you some­how come closer to the banal “golden rule” of doing unto others as you would have them do unto you…