When I wrote this note in my notebook about a year ago, I decided not to publish it, since I thought it wasn’t worked out properly. But who has the time to work ideas out these days? “Ready. Fire! Aim.” Right?
Now everyone and his dog is talking about it,1 and once again I regret what I didn’t do.
So, briefly and naively, here it is as it is.
The state pension system. In fact, state pension provision is no more reliable than its private counterparts. What’s more, since it’s run by officials, people managing other people’s money, it’s more vulnerable. Officials easily dodge responsibility.
A private company can collapse: I think that’s the most common stone thrown at private pension systems. Right, and the state can’t collapse? Is the state forever? Tell that to my grandmother. Her parents were born and grew up in one State, she lived into old age in another, and when she retired, her State collapsed, taking all her savings with it. And I, her grandson, now live in a third State.
/* third both in order and in standard of living, by the way */
Even in a state that hasn’t collapsed, you can easily be deprived of the pension you’re owed. And in general, under a state pension system, your life in old age will be in officials’ hands. Do you want that, @username?
On top of that, rising average life expectancy combined with a politically fixed retirement age (raising the retirement age is suicide for any politician who so much as brings the subject up), plus falling birth rates (and these are worldwide trends that won’t go away in the foreseeable future): these three factors put the state pension system in dire straits. Pension funds are simply unable to meet their obligations to pensioners. This applies even to the most “conscientious” pension funds of the most stable developed countries.
On “everyone is talking”, read, for example, “The inevitability of default” by Sergei Guriev in the October 2011 issue of Forbes Ukraine. ↩